NOTES: F- Forecast, CAGR – Compound Annual Growth Rate, mbpd – Million Barrels Per Day
SOURCE: Ministry of oil and Natural Gas, BP Statistical Review 2015 BMI Forecasts, Aranca Research
The oil and gas sector is among the six core industries in India and plays a major role in influencing decision making for all the other important sections of the economy.
In 1997–98, the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) was envisaged to fill the ever-increasing gap between India’s gas demand and supply. India’s economic growth is closely related to energy demand; therefore the need for oil and gas is projected to grow more, thereby making the sector quite conducive for investment.
The Government of India has adopted several policies to fulfil the increasing demand. The government has allowed 100 per cent Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in many segments of the sector, including natural gas, petroleum products, and refineries, among others. Today, it attracts both domestic and foreign investment, as attested by the presence of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) and Cairn India.
India is expected to be one of the largest contributors to non-OECD petroleum consumption growth globally. Oil imports rose sharply year-on-year by 27.89 per cent to US$ 9.29 billion in October 2017. India’s oil consumption grew 8.3 per cent year-on-year to 212.7 million tonnes in 2016, as against the global growth of 1.5 per cent, thereby making it the third-largest oil consuming nation in the world.
India is the fourth-largest Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) importer after Japan, South Korea and China, and accounts for 5.8 per cent of the total global trade. Domestic LNG demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.89 per cent to 306.54 MMSCMD by 2021 from 64 MMSCMD in 2015.
The country’s gas production is expected to touch 90 Billion Cubic Metres (BCM) in 2040 from 21.3 BCM in 2017-2018 (Apr-Nov). Gas pipeline infrastructure in the country stood at 16,470 km in September 2017.
According to data released by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), the petroleum and natural gas sector attracted FDI worth US$ 6.86 billion between April 2000 and September 2017.
Following are some of the major investments and developments in the oil and gas sector:
Some of the major initiatives taken by the Government of India to promote oil and gas sector are:
India’s oil demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.6 per cent to 458 Million Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (MTOE) by 2040, while demand for energy will more than double by 2040 as economy will grow to more than five times its current size, as stated by Mr Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas.
Gas production will likely touch 90 Billion Cubic Metres (BCM) by 2040, subject to adjustment to the current formula that determines the price paid to domestic producers, while demand for natural gas will grow at a CAGR of 4.6 per cent to touch 149 MTOE.
After the completion of certain projects which are undertaken by various refineries, the Refining Capacity of India is expected to reach 256.55 MMTPA by 2019-20.
The demand for petroleum products is estimated to reach 244,960 MT by 2021-22, up from 186,209 MT in 2016, and the demand for natural gas is expected to reach 606 MMSCMD by 2021-22 as against a demand of 473 MMSCMD in 2016-17.
EXCHANGE RATE USED: INR 1 = US$ 0.015 as on January 4, 2018
REFERENCES: Media Reports, Press Releases, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Union Budget 2016-17
Note: 1- According to data from the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas; 2- According to a report by Fitch; 3- IGU World Gas LNG Report 2016 Edition